Midwest City, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

314
FXUS64 KOUN 250252
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
952 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 946 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

 - Scattered thunderstorms and the potential for severe weather
   are expected Thursday afternoon/evening. Damaging wind gusts
   are the main severe hazard.

 - Dangerous heat continues into the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

An afternoon and evening featuring a multi-hazard risk (heat &
severe weather) is apparent across the forecast area today. A belt
of generally weak and variable upper-level flow continues across the
Southern Plains, on the periphery of a subtropical ridge across the
Southeast. Near the surface, a weak cold front continues to meander
into portions of far northern Oklahoma, currently extending from
~Plainview, TX to Gage, OK to west of Pratt, KS.

The current expectation is for the development of scattered to
numerous thunderstorms in vicinity of the aforementioned front by
~3-4 PM this afternoon. Provided a very hot, generally dry and
well-mixed boundary layer (contributing to low-level lapse rates
>8.0 C/km), along with weak wind shear, the background
environment will support several strong to potentially severe
(50-70 mph) downburst wind events with convection through the
evening. While at least scattered coverage of thunderstorms is
expected to continue well after dark, the risk for severe weather
(beyond a very isolated/transient concern) should cease by 10-11
PM Thursday.

Will also monitor the potential for a localized heavy rain/flooding
concern across northern Oklahoma from the mid-evening into early
morning hours of Friday. Precipitable water (PWAT) values near and
exceeding 2.0" (greater than climatological maximum) are
commonplace across short-range guidance this morning, and with
potential for multiple rounds of heavy thunderstorms, some risk
for flooding is apparent. The expected scattered nature of
convection (i.e., will "breaks"/gaps in precipitation occur?) and
antecedent conditions limit overall predictability of such a
threat tonight.

While the risk for thunderstorms will be confined mainly for
areas north/west of Interstate 44, most areas will experience
dangerously hot afternoon and early evening conditions. A notable
low-level thermal ridge looks to establish across western zones
by this afternoon, and a corridor of triple-digit ambient
temperatures is probable from western-north Texas into north-
central Oklahoma. Similarly hot temperatures will be possible in
the moisture axis across southeastern Oklahoma, where the highest
heat indices (perhaps near/exceeding 110-degrees) will be
possible. A Heat Advisory continues until 8 PM for all but the
far northwestern corner of the area.

Ungar

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing
towards daybreak Friday morning, possibly in an expansive profile
from central into western and northern Oklahoma. While severe
weather potential is low, lightning and brief heavy rainfall will be
risks with this activity. A gradual transition towards drier weather
is expected into the morning and afternoon. We have added low
mentions for showers and thunderstorms into the afternoon from
western-north Texas into north-central Oklahoma, along a lingering
(weak) trough axis, and with potential for remnant outflow
boundaries/weak surface front(s). Once again, strong to potentially
severe downburst wind gusts would be possible during the demise of
stronger thunderstorm cores during this time.

Heat will remain a concern on Friday, with potential for continued
triple-digit ambient temperatures across the southern one-half of
the area. This is also were heat indices look to climb near and
above 105-degrees. As such, a Heat Advisory has been posted for
portions of western-north Texas and southern Oklahoma from 1 PM
to 8 PM on Friday.

Saturday: A more solidly hot and dry period of weather is
currently advertised by Saturday, as the subtropical ridge to our
southeast begins to retrograde. Continued triple-digit
temperatures across the western portion of the area, with
>105-degree heat indices across much of the area are likely into
the afternoon and early evening. Additional heat headlines are
likely for at least a portion of the forecast area.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 105 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

The general consensus, especially from Sunday into the early
portions of next week, is for persistent hot and dry afternoons
across the area. Grand ensemble guidance depicts an upper ridge
expanding and slowly translating eastward across the midsection
of the CONUS during this time. Ambient temperatures in the
upper-90s to low-100s with heat indices near/above 105-degrees
will be likely and heat headlines are likely to continue in some
capacity.

More uncertainty in the pattern and associated sensible weather
outcomes arrives by this time next week, when some guidance shows
a slow breakdown in the ridge/and or greater northwest upper flow
aloft. This would allow for low PoP chances to return to portions
of the area.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 946 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Scattered showers/storms will remain possible overnight into early
Friday with the highest chances at KWWR/KCSM/KPNC. The potential
for strong variable winds have decreased but a few storms may
still produce some gusty winds. A lull in activity is still
expected with additional storm development possible Friday
afternoon/evening. Uncertainty continues on where exactly this
will occur and could be dependent on what occurs overnight into
the morning but currently it still looks like development will be
generally near and NW of I-44. VFR ceilings are expected
throughout the TAF period. Winds will be relatively light and
variable across parts of northern OK. Shifting winds will also be
possible as outflow boundary(ies) move across the area. Otherwise,
overall winds will generally be from the S and SE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  75  97  76  95 /  20  20  20   0
Hobart OK         73 101  75 101 /  30  20  20   0
Wichita Falls TX  76 101  76  99 /  20  20  20   0
Gage OK           68  94  70  99 /  70  30  20   0
Ponca City OK     74  96  75  96 /  40  20  20   0
Durant OK         74  98  77  95 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Friday for OKZ032>048-
     050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Friday for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...25