Midwest City, Oklahoma 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

409
FXUS64 KOUN 051725
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

- Low to moderate rain/thunderstorm chances continue into next
  week.

- Hot and humid conditions return next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Areas of relatively light showers persist in south central and
central Oklahoma with some new showers developing farther east.
With the nearly moist adiabatic temperature profile from this
morning`s sounding, instability is not too high for this time of
year, but definitely high enough to support some widely scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon and into early this evening. But
this morning`s sounding also showed that the precipitable water
content remains very high (2.12 inches) so heavy rainfall is
definitely possible wherever thunderstorms develop.

Widespread clouds have persisted over the forecast area this
afternoon. But any breaks in the clouds have allowed temperatures
to warm quickly into the 80s, so today`s forecast high
temperatures still look reasonable in most areas. The POPs in this
afternoon`s forecast have been expanded/raised, especially in the
eastern half of the area. Have also kept POPs southeast into this
evening before diurnal weakening is expected.

There is a mixed bag on the storm chances tonight in the
northwest with operational GFS bringing some QPF into northwest
Oklahoma before sunrise tomorrow, the NAM showing the convection
staying northwest and north of the forecast area, and the 00Z
ECMWF dissipating any High Plains convection by 00Z well northwest
of here. Did not see a high enough signal for 20 POPs in the
northwest, but there is a non-zero chance to see some storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

The upper ridge still does not look to build strongly enough into
the Plains to limit precipitation chances, so we expect to see
storm chances persist Sunday and Monday. These chances will
include both local diurnally-driven convection in this humid
airmass, but also at least some potential for afternoon High
Plains convection to form a storm complex moving toward northwest
Oklahoma.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

The long term will be dominated by northwest flow, putting a bit
more emphasis on the potential for decaying storm complexes to
affect northern Oklahoma during the overnight / early morning
periods. Diurnally driven chances trend downward as PWATs continue
to decrease.

Heat will gradually increase to near normal under the influence of
the nearby upper high (over southwestern U.S.), with heat indices
reaching to the century mark, including some areas near 105 degrees
across southeastern Oklahoma.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Widespread low stratus will continue to promote lowered category
(MVFR/IFR) at most terminals this morning before slow improvement
to predominately VFR conditions is forecast, similar to previous
days.

Widely scattered diurnal thunderstorm development looks to remain
focused in a corridor from north Texas into south-central
Oklahoma, with low probability impact at KSPS/KLAW/KOUN during the
afternoon and evening. Brief heavy rainfall/reduced vis would be
expected if a thunderstorm impacts a terminal.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  71  88  71  88 /  10  10  10  20
Hobart OK         71  91  71  91 /  10  10  10  20
Wichita Falls TX  73  87  72  90 /  10  30  10  30
Gage OK           67  93  66  90 /  10  20  30  10
Ponca City OK     72  91  71  90 /  10  30  20  20
Durant OK         74  91  73  92 /  20  20   0  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...09